Browsing by Author "Winkler, Harald"
Now showing 1 - 20 of 90
Results Per Page
Sort Options
- ItemRestrictedAccess and affordability of electricity in developing countries(Elsevier, 2011) Winkler, Harald; Alam, Mozaharul; Rahman, Atiq; Mwakasonda, Stanford; Simões, André Felipe; Rovere, Emilio Lèbre LaA key objective of developing countries is to provide affordable access to modern energy services in order to support economic and social development. The paper presents a number of arguments for why and in which way energy access and affordability can play a key role in national development programs and in achieving the Millennium Development Goals. Approaches for measuring accessibility and affordability are presented, drawing on case studies of Bangladesh, Brazil, and South Africa, countries with different rates of electrification. Affordability of using electricity is examined in relation to the energy expenditure burden for households and time consumption. Conclusions focus on lessons learned and recommendations for implementing policies, instruments, and regulatory measures to tackle the challenge of affordability.
- ItemOpen AccessAn historical political economy analysis of high-emissions low-employment development in South Africa(2023) Van, Doesburgh Nicholas; Winkler, Harald; Marquard AndrewSouth Africa is grappling with persistently high levels of poverty, inequality and unemployment, while at the same time being one of the top twenty greenhouse gas emitters in the world. While calls have been made for South Africa to embark on a just transition to a lowcarbon society, a better understanding is needed of the factors that have led to the country's current unsustainability. Drawing on the concept of the minerals-energy complex, this thesis presents an historical political economy analysis of South Africa's industrialisation process in order to (1) identify the key factors that have contributed to the country's high emissions and low employment; and (2) to determine the role of industrial policy in shaping this unsustainable development pathway. The analysis shows that the capital- and energy-intensive characteristics of South Africa's industrial structure have contributed to the country's high unemployment and high emissions. While industrial policy has been instrumental in shaping this industrial structure, its role in the post-apartheid era has been complicated by the existence of a ‘hidden' industrial policy in conflict with official objectives as well as implementation challenges which together have constrained the effectiveness of policies aimed at inclusive decarbonisation. From these results, it is argued that the adoption of an integrated green industrial policy has an important role to play in enabling South Africa to embark on a just transition to an inclusive low-carbon society.
- ItemOpen AccessAnalysis of possible quantified emission reduction commitments by individual Annex I Parties(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, Andrew; Letete, ThapeloThis paper draws on research in the public domain, in order to provide an analytical basis for a proposal on possible quantified emission reduction commitments for Annex 1 countries under the Kyoto Protocol.
- ItemOpen AccessAnalysis of the economic implications of a carbon tax(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, AndrewThe aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the implications and impact of a carbon tax in the South African context – it aims to serve as an introduction rather than an exhaustive analysis, and therefore does not draw any comparative conclusions on the suitability of a carbon tax by comparison with alternative instruments such as cap and trade systems. Before turning to the specific topic of this paper, a carbon tax, some background is given to broadly on economic instruments and carbon markets. Following this, existing attempts to model the impact of a carbon tax on the South African economy are discussed, followed by a discussion on policy challenges and some existing proposals.
- ItemOpen AccessAnalysis of the economic implications of a carbon tax(University of Cape Town, 2011) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, AndrewA carbon tax should be considered among the range of instruments available to the South African government, economy and society, as part of a broad portfolio of mitigation actions. A carbon tax was one of the most effective wedges or mitigation options analysed for the Long-term mitigation scenarios (LTMS) for South Africa. The LTMS strategic option ‘Using the market’ reduced emissions roughly as required by Science, for several decades. The LTMS research indicated that the effectiveness increases, up to certain tax levels. South Africa might consider a tax starting around R100-200 / t CO2eq, escalating in future. Our paper presents results on research on a carbon tax in South Africa conducted in 2008 and was presented at the Climate Change Summit 2009. The efficiency with which a carbon tax achieves the goal of reducing GHG emissions depends on responsiveness and substitutability. This is shown more fully on the supply-side, while further work will be needed to fully understand the response to a carbon tax on the demand side. Careful design of a carbon tax (or other economic instruments considered) will be important to ensure that it is effective in meeting its objective – reducing GHG emissions. We propose a price discovery and adjustment mechanism that sets a band around the desired ‘peak, plateau and decline’ trajectory. Equity demands that poor households, in particular, be shielded from any burden. Off-setting incentives, such as food subsidies or reduced VAT on basic goods, should in finance measure that which will ensure that the package of tax and incentives is a net benefit to the poor – and not to treat the tax as a revenue-raising instrument. With appropriate design, a carbon tax can be a powerful instrument of mitigation in South Africa, and at the same time, contribute to socio-economic objectives. Keywords: carbon tax, South Africa, economic instruments, climate change mitigation, greenhouse gas emissions.
- ItemOpen AccessAssessing South Africa's potential to become a low carbon society : a backcasting approach to climate change mitigation assessment(2010) Witi, Jongikhaya; Winkler, HaraldIncludes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 162-170).
- ItemOpen AccessAssessing the effectiveness of national solar and wind energy policies in South Africa(Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town., 2010) Edkins, Max; Marquard, Andrew; Winkler, HaraldThe report assesses the progress made on renewable energy deployment for the solar and wind technologies over the last 12 years in South Africa. First the report assesses the potential contribution solar water heaters (SWHs), concentrating solar power (CSP), large-scale photovoltaic (PV) farms and wind technology can bring to South Africa’s energy demand by 2030. It highlights what the mid-term potential for each is by 2030 and compares this with the deployment of each over the past 12 years. From this a renewable energy policy effectiveness value is calculated based on the method developed in the Deploying Renewables Report (IEA, 2008a) and this is critically assessed. Finally, the report assesses the factors involved in renewable energy deployment, or the lack thereof, in South Africa and discusses recent developments in the field. The compilation of this paper was based on desktop reviews; data interpretation from multiple sources; expert opinion of the authors and peer reviewers; and interviews with experts in the field. A number of interviews were conducted at the ISES International Solar Energy Society Conference in October 2009 and the Energy 2010 Indaba in February 2010. The data used in this report to formulate the projections is from a number of sources and has been independently reviewed.
- ItemOpen AccessAn assessment of financial incentives for encouraging South Africa's domestic solar water heater market(2009) Stewart, Alistair Henry; Winkler, HaraldSA has a demand for domestic hot water, which is supplied by a number of different technologies. For a number of reasons, including health reasons and versatility, Government has encouraged the demand for electricity to meet domestic requirements. But currently there is a shortage of electricity supply, with negative impacts for the development of SA. Solar water heating (SWH) is a renewable energy technology that could relieve some of the demand for electricity, and the aim of this study is to assess which types of national financial incentive programmes should be implemented in order to encourage the use of SWH systems in households, within the context of SA's energy policy and the current electricity crisis. However, only hybrid SWH technologies were considered, due to a lack of information. A review of literature shows that domestic SWH technology use is uncommon, resulting from households preferring other technologies for reasons of cost and convenience. The modelling of current and hypothetical scenarios of energy consumption for domestic water heating show that the increased use of hybrid SWH technology would benefit SA's sustainable development. A literature review was used to identify the barriers stopping these benefits from being translated into the domestic sector. A literature review of energy policy documents confirmed SA's commitment to sustainable development and introduced a number of developments intended to reduce the barriers to renewable energy technologies. Investment incentives and set-asides were identified as potential financial incentive options for SA. A literature review of the SWH market identified the existing structures and capacity of expertise, and identified options for reducing SWH barriers. A criteria analysis was performed on a set-aside option and investment incentive options, which included a direct subsidy, an income tax deduction, and an interest rate subsidy. The criteria used for this analysis were derived from this study and a report of international experiences, and the analysis provided an assessment of the suitability of each of these financial incentives. The assessment resulted in the recommendation that a direct subsidy programme be implemented, possibly using a system of Tradable Renewable Energy Certificates (TRECs), which could allow for compatibility with developments that could enhance the success of the programme.
- ItemOpen AccessAssisting Africa: a critical analysis of technical assistance in low carbon development practice(2019) du Toit, Michelle; Chitonge, Horman; Winkler, HaraldClimate change mitigation efforts are increasingly forming part of the agendas of African nations, particularly since the inclusion of voluntary targets for these countries within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement of 2015. This focus towards the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions, together with the need to achieve development objectives, has become combined in the practice of ‘low carbon development’ within developing countries. Technical assistance programmes have been set up to support the achievement of low carbon development, and these activities typically flow from the global North to Africa. However the power structures and flows of benefit that underlie these practices have not been the subject of much enquiry and are largely occluded within the climate change mitigation community of practice. With the inclusion of climate change mitigation targets for developing countries together with a direct call for increased capacity building within the Paris Agreement, the volume of technical assistance support focused towards Africa is likely to increase. As such the need to consider what effective technical assistance, that is both equitable and appropriate to the African context, might look like becomes a priority. This study engages with these issues. By considering the literature arising from decolonial studies and development theory together with bringing to the fore the perceptions of African climate change mitigation professionals, it provides a critical analysis of the tacit assumptions that are legitimated within the technical assistance practice in climate change mitigation. The study finds that current modes of technical assistance practice within low carbon development continues to entrench the hegemonic nature of knowledge of the global North, and perpetuates the placement of Africa in a position of extraversion towards the North, assuming African government and climate change practitioners as lacking in knowledge and expertise. The study advocates for a more equal and bilateral flow of knowledge between the two regions in order for African nations to faster and more effectively reach the twin goals of development and mitigation within Africa. It considers the lack of the critical theories of decolonial studies and development theory in climate change scholarship (particularly the absence of African voices in the debate) and brings these alternative voices and theories into low carbon development technical assistance practice.
- ItemRestrictedBuilding bridges to 2020 and beyond: the road from Bali(Taylor & Francis, 2007) Winkler, Harald; Vorster, ShaunWhat would the shape of a realistic, yet ambitious, package for the climate regime after 2012 look like? How do we obtain a package deal starting in Bali but building bridges to a post-2020 climate regime? A fair, effective, flexible and inclusive package deal has to strike a core balance between development and climate imperatives (mitigation, adaptation, dealing with the impacts of response measures, technology transfer, investment and finance) to create bargaining space and establish a conceptual contract zone. Within a continuum of possible packages, two packages in the contract zone are identified: ‘multi-stage’ and ‘ambitious transitional’. The latter is ambitious, combining domestic cap-and-trade for the USA, deeper cuts for Annex B countries, and quantifiable mitigation actions by developing countries. It is transitional as a possible bridge to a more inclusive regime beyond 2020. Multi-stage is defined around mechanisms by which countries move through increasingly stringent levels of participation, and must be based upon agreed triggers. Our assessment of political dynamics is that multi-stage is not yet in the political contract zone. Key to this is the absence of a ‘trigger from the North’, in that the largest historical emitter must act earlier and most decisively. But progress will also depend on continued leadership from Annex B countries, as well as more proactive, incentivized leadership in the South. Agreeing on the transitional stage is the critical next step in the evolution of the climate regime. Negotiating any package will require an institutional space for bargaining, political leadership and trust, and a clear time-frame.
- ItemOpen AccessCape Town energy futures: Policies and scenarios for sustainable city energy development(University of Cape Town, 2005) Winkler, Harald; Borchers, Mark; Hughes, Alison; Heinrich, Glen; Visagie, EugeneThe purpose of this report is to develop some scenarios for Cape Town’s energy future. The simulation model, the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system, has been used to simulate how energy might develop in Cape Town over the twenty years from 2000 to 2020. These developments are driven not only by the nature of the energy sector itself, but also by broader factors, notably population, household size, economic growth (which may vary by sector) and other factors. The report builds on previous work done on the ‘state of energy’ for Cape Town (CCT & SEA 2003). That report was useful in capturing the current status of energy in the city, informed the City Energy Strategy conference and Cape Town’s own strategy (SEA, CCT & ICLEI 2003) and provided the starting data for this study. This report takes the work further in developing a tool that simulates what might happen to energy in the future, in a business-as-usual case and with policy interventions. A range of policy interventions are selected, and how these would change energy development in the city is examined, compared to a reference case. Interventions were selected based on various criteria, including implementation cost and technical feasibility, environmental priority, and political will. Different policies can be grouped for their sectors – industry, residential, commercial, government and transport – and also combined to form multiple-policy scenarios. These scenarios should be understood as a series of ‘what if’ questions, e.g. what if the City of Cape Town increased efficiency in its own buildings. The scenarios are not any prediction of the future, nor are any of these scenarios considered more likely than others. Instead, we report the implications of different policies and scenarios. The implications for energy, environment (both local pollutants and global greenhouse gases) and development are of particular interest. This study reports the cost implications of different scenarios only to a limited extent, as to do this adequately for many of the scenarios is beyond the scope of the project. Areas where further work is required, including around costing, are also identified.
- ItemOpen AccessCape Town energy futures: Policies and scenarios for sustainable city energy development(2005) Winkler, Harald; Borchers, Mark; Alison, Hughes; Visagie, Eugene; Heindrich, Glen
- ItemOpen AccessCarbon capture and storage in South Africa(World Resources Institute, 2005) Mwakasonda, Stanford; Winkler, HaraldSome three-quarters of South Africa’s primary energy supply and 93 percent of its electricity are derived from coal (NER, 2002; DME, 2003b). Even in more optimistic energy policy scenarios (De Villiers and others, 1999; EDRC, 2003; Banks & Schäffler, 2005), coal continues to provide for the majority of South Africa’s energy needs over the next 20 to 30 years. Almost 80 percent of GHG emissions come from the energy sector—both supply and use—and most of these are in the form of carbon dioxide (Van der Merwe & Scholes, 1998; RSA, 2004). Making South Africa’s energy system more sustainable is a transition that will take decades. Making energy development in South Africa more sustainable will require attention to solutions that deal with CO2 emissions from coal. Together, these factors mean that an evaluation of the sustainability of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies is an important element of climate policy.
- ItemRestrictedCBDR&RC in a regime applicable to all(Taylor and Francis, 2014) Winkler, Harald; Rajamani, LavanyaThe principle of common, but differentiated, responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR&RC) is fundamental to the UNFCCC. Some options for a nuanced model of differentiation that addresses both responsibility and capability in a changing world are explored, such as new categories of countries, and some of the political issues that such a model might face are considered. The strengths and limitations of options for graduation based on ‘objective’ criteria such that countries could move between categories or ‘graduate’ – an option provided by the UNFCCC – are discussed. Countries could also choose to join another club (e.g. the G20), self-elect into categories or differentiate among themselves implicitly by accepting different commitments and actions. CBDR&RC will form part of the overall legally binding agreement, and must apply symmetry in some respects and differentiation in others to the commitments and actions contained therein. Some possible characteristics of CBDR&RC of relevance in a regime ‘applicable to all’ are outlined. These include promoting climate action and using mechanisms available in the UNFCCC to instil dynamism. Differentiation on mitigation must consider the distinctions between absolute and relative reductions, as well as commitments to outcomes and implementation. CBDR&RC should be applied to mitigation, adaptation, and the means of implementation. Policy relevance: In Durban, Parties agreed to negotiate a regime ‘applicable to all’, which sent a political signal that there should be greater symmetry between nations. The world has changed since the UNFCCC was negotiated in 1992. It is now less helpful to think only in terms of two groups of countries (e.g. Annex I and non-Annex I), and evident that there are significant differences between member states. This requires a more nuanced interpretation of the principles of equity and CBDR&RC, which is an integral part of the UNFCCC. The options for the different approaches outlined in this article might help in the construction of a more nuanced model. All must do more, while some must do more still than others. To achieve this, some defining characteristics of CBDR&RC in a regime applicable to all are suggested.
- ItemRestrictedCDM: Taking stock and looking forward(Elsevier, 2005) Ellisa, Jane; Winkler, Harald; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Gagnon-Lebrun, FrédéricThe Kyoto Protocol’s clean development mechanism (CDM) was established in 1997 with the dual purposes of assisting non-Annex I Parties in achieving sustainable development and assisting Annex I Parties in achieving compliance with their quantified greenhouse gas (GHG) emission commitments. This paper looks at the development of the CDM portfolio as well as achievements of the CDM to date in the context of wider private and public flows of investment into developing countries. These achievements include the development of 325 (by May 2005) proposed CDM projects which are together expected to generate more than 79 Mt CO2-eq credits/year during 2008–2012, increasing awareness of climate change mitigation options among possible investors and others that may facilitate transactions (i.e. governments), and the strengthening of climate-relevant institutions within countries. The paper also draws lessons from this experience to date, and outlines what changes may be needed to transform the CDM concept to a broader scale after the end of the first commitment period in 2012.
- ItemRestrictedChanging development paths: from an energy-intensive to low-carbon economy in South Africa(Taylor & Francis, 2009) Winkler, Harald; Marquard, AndrewClimate change mitigation poses significant challenges for South Africa and its energy development, historically highly energy intensive. At the same time, the country faces a host of daunting development challenges, exacerbated by the legacy of apartheid. Examining both challenges, this paper considers how alternative conceptions of a development path can be achieved. In the short term, energy efficiency provides large potential for mitigation – and energy savings at the same time. Changing South Africa’s fuel mix, dependent to three-quarters on coal, is at least a medium-term challenge. The minerals–energy complex is so central to the economy that it is likely to take decades to change dramatically. The most transformative change is to an alteration in economic structure, likely to take long to achieve. The article examines specific policy instruments that might be implemented to achieve such a transformation. A transition to a low-carbon economy will require a paradigm shift in industrial policy. It will require considered provision for sectors sensitive to changes in energy prices. Building up new, climate-friendly industries will be needed to sustain employment and investment. To enable a just transition, provision will have to be made for emissions-intensive sectors, if they are to be phased out over time. South African government has adopted a vision, strategic direction and framework for climate policy. Policymakers have begun to understand that the future will be carbon constrained and that South Africa’s emission will have to stop growing, stabilize and decline before mid-century. The challenge of climate change is a long-term challenge, requiring immediate action. This article examines actions at near-, medium- and long-term timescales. Its focus is on the most transformative change, that of seeking to shift development paths.
- ItemOpen AccessCleaner energy cooler climate: developing sustainable energy solutions for South Africa(2011) Winkler, HaraldFor South Africa, finding a policy approach which balances the increasing demand for energy with the need for sustainability, equity and climate change mitigation is a particular challenge. Energy and climate change are issues of critical importance for shaping a sustainable future, both in South Africa and globally. This book provides an innovative and strategic approach to climate policy, with local development objectives as its starting point.
- ItemOpen AccessClimate change and developing countries(Academy of Science of South Africa (ASSAf), 2005) Winkler, HaraldThis article takes stock of current knowledge of climate change and the response to this major problem affecting the environment and economic development. It begins with a brief review of climate change science and impacts as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It then reports on the status of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and summarizes national commitments to making the effort required to mitigate climate change by limiting the emission of greenhouse gases. The main issues still to be addressed are identified, focusing in particular on carbon markets and adaptation funding. Future prospects are considered, including possible emissions targets for developing countries. The article thus focuses on the key issues of concern for developing countries.
- ItemOpen AccessClimate change and developing countries(University of Cape Town, 2005) Winkler, HaraldThis article takes stock of current knowledge of climate change and the response to this major problem affecting the environment and economic development. It begins with a brief review of climate change science and impacts as assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It then reports on the status of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and summarizes national commitments to making the effort required to mitigate climate change by limiting the emission of greenhouse gases. The main issues still to be addressed are identified, focusing in particular on carbon markets and adaptation funding. Future prospects are considered, including possible emissions targets for developing countries. The article thus focuses on the key issues of concern for developing countries.
- ItemRestrictedClimate change mitigation negotiations, with an emphasis on options for developing countries(2008) Winkler, HaraldClimate change is one of the greatest threats to our planet and its people. Reducing emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) is called mitigation. Responding to the impacts of climate change is called adaptation. A certain amount of adaptation will be necessary, no matter what we do. But, there will come a point where it will not be possible to adapt our way out of the problem. Mitigation has been at the heart of the climate negotiations from the outset. As the next round of negotiations focuses on what developing countries might do on mitigation, the topic remains highly relevant. The remainder of this introduction briefly sketches the history of the climate negotiations, ending with the most recent agreements in Bali. The paper then turns to the scientific basis of the work on mitigation. Section 3 introduces background concepts for proposals on mitigation, leading into the next section, which identifies not only different schools of thought but a number of specific proposals as well. The “hot” topic of how mitigation actions can be made ‘measurable, reportable and verifiable’ (MRV) is examined in section 5, before concluding with some questions for discussion. Information on the terminology used in this paper can be obtained from the glossary in Annex 4.